Stock Market Crash?

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by nickmckinney » Tue Feb 04, 2014 3:50 pm

IMHO this is all due to the giant variable that got introduced this year, Obamacare and how much is it going to affect consumer spending. I am planning for a drop myself.

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by Ken0069 » Wed Feb 12, 2014 11:13 am

I've read more than one "economics expert" opinion concerning where we are and what has to happen, and any way you look at it, it ain't pretty! Just found this one this morning but it kinda follows along with what I've been seeing, just not put this way. Interesting to say the least and kinda freaky as well. Let's hope it's wrong!

Scary 1929 market chart gains traction
Opinion: If market follows the same script, trouble lies directly ahead

Feb. 11, 2014, 6:30 a.m. EST
By Mark Hulbert

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scary- ... 2014-02-11
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — There are eerie parallels between the stock market’s recent behavior and how it behaved right before the 1929 crash.

That at least is the conclusion reached by a frightening chart that has been making the rounds on Wall Street. The chart superimposes the market’s recent performance on top of a plot of its gyrations in 1928 and 1929.

The picture isn’t pretty. And it’s not as easy as you might think to wriggle out from underneath the bearish significance of this chart.

Image

I should know, because I quoted a number of this chart’s skeptics in a column I wrote in early December. Yet the market over the last two months has continued to more or less closely follow the 1928-29 pattern outlined in that two-months-ago chart. If this correlation continues, the market faces a particularly rough period later this month and in early March. (See chart, courtesy of Tom McClellan of the McClellan Market Report; he in turn gives credit to Tom DeMark, a noted technical analyst who is the founder and CEO of DeMark Analytics.)

One of the biggest objections I heard two months ago was that the chart is a shameless exercise in after-the-fact retrofitting of the recent data to some past price pattern. But that objection has lost much of its force. The chart was first publicized in late November of last year, and the correlation since then certainly appears to be just as close as it was before.

To be sure, as McClellan acknowledged: “Every pattern analog I have ever studied breaks correlation eventually, and often at the point when I am most counting on it to continue working. So there is no guarantee that the market has to continue following through with every step of the 1929 pattern. But between now and May 2014, there is plenty of reason for caution.”

Tom Demark added in interview that he first drew parallels with the 1928-1929 period well before last November. “Originally, I drew it for entertainment purposes only,” he said—but no longer: “Now it’s evolved into something more serious.”

Another objection I heard two months ago was that there are entirely different scales on the left and right axes of the chart. The scale on the right, corresponding to the Dow’s DJIA -0.12% movement in 1928 and 1929, extends from below 200 to more than 400—an increase of more than 100%. The left axis, in contrast, represents a percentage increase of less than 50%.

But there’s less to this objection than you might think. You can still have a high correlation coefficient between two data series even when their gyrations are of different magnitudes.

However, what is important, McClellan said, is that the time scales of the two data series need to be the same. And, he stresses, there has been no stretching of the time dimension to make them fit.

One of the market gurus responsible for widely publicizing this chart is hedge-fund manager Doug Kass, of Seabreeze Partners and CNBC fame. In an email earlier this week, Kass wrote of the parallels with 1928-29: “While investment history doesn’t necessarily repeat itself, it does rhyme.” And, based on a number of indicators rather than just this chart drawing the 1928-29 parallel, he believes that “the correction might have just started.”

DeMark is even more outspokenly bearish. If the S&P 500 SPX +0.08% decisively breaks the 1762 level, he told me, then a major bear market will have only just begun.

You may still be inclined to dismiss this. But there were many more were laughing last November when this scary chart began circulating. Not as many are laughing now.
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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by Warpspeed » Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:39 pm

GARY C wrote:Ken, do you think any of this could have to do with the Fed not being able to produce the actual gold for the country's that thought they were secure in our gold storage?

If I understand correctly the country's asking for their gold are getting remelted similarities of what they gave us to store and it's taking years to return it????

Not sure if any of this is true?
Its absolutely and definitely true.
And it will be the trigger that brings EVERYTHING ELSE crashing down with it.
Somebody somewhere (probably the Chinese) will demand delivery for gold futures they have purchased in good faith, and there will not be enough gold in either the LBMA or NYMEX to make delivery.
All it takes is one default on delivery, and total panic will follow.

As it is now, gold is leveraged somewhere between 50:1 and maybe even over 100:1.
Nobody knows the exact amount, because there is so much secrecy and so many lies and deceptions.

That means for every ounce of gold being held in an account somewhere, there are 50+ people that have a paper claim on that exact same single ounce of gold.
That works fine as long as nobody askes for "their" gold back.
If two people demand that same gold, TSHTF.
If all fifty (or all one hundred) front up together demanding to withdraw "their" gold, what do you think is going to happen ?

If you have a piece of paper saying you have some gold stored somewhere in your name, it is very likely you will never see that gold, because it no longer exists.
Cheers, Tony.

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by swatson454 » Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:36 am

I think the writing's on the wall, fellas.

http://www.infowars.com/another-jp-morg ... his-death/
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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by nickmckinney » Wed Feb 19, 2014 1:17 pm

Take your heads out of the sand please, research the people that made money when the market crashed in 29, it doesn't crash for everybody............

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by 4banger » Thu Feb 27, 2014 1:23 am

I think a lot of you are missing a very important part in your thinking !! We (America) have printed so much money, that we can not cover with gold, that the other countries are no longer accepting the U S dollar!
China, Russia, Japan and a lot of other countries are getting together to sign agreements to accept each others currency instead of dollars. One financial guru told how when Russia wanted to buy oil from Saudi Arabia, they first had to change their currency to dollars because the world goes by the American dollar as the world standard.
As soon as they get together and don't need American dollars anymore, we are screwed! That's when we have a crash like never before.
There's a country in Africa ( can't remember which one) who uses a one million dollar note. Yet it has nothing printed on the back! Looks like a dollar with nothing on the back. When asked why, a government official said the INK was more valuable then the one million dollar note so they didn't print anything on the back!!
I've read that when you hear on tv that there is a virus or problem with our banking system computers and it's gonna be announced on a Friday that come Monday everything will be fixed, that's when the government will use the weekend to set up martial law for the riots when people on Monday find all their savings are gone and a gallon of gas costs $10-$15 if you can find any, food prices have increased by 800 to 1500 percent and no food is transported because of fuel shortages.
This is what the social democrats want....To put America in bankruptcy AND CHAOS !! So they can take over! NO CONSTITUTION,,,NO BILL OF RIGHTS.... MARTIAL LAW ... THIS IS WHY THEY BOUGHT ALL THAT AMMO!! I HOPE EVERYONE IS STOCKING UP ON FOOD AND MEDS AND HAS A CLEAN SOURCE OF DRINKING WATER.!! PLEASE START PREPARING NOW!!
I thought I was wrong once but I was mistaken...

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by Warpspeed » Thu Feb 27, 2014 2:07 am

4banger wrote: There's a country in Africa ( can't remember which one) who uses a one million dollar note.!
Its true, its Zimbabwe and its even worse than that.
This isn't a joke, its a REAL one hundred billion dollar bank note issued by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe
Image
There is now a hundred trillion dollar Zimbabwe banknote in circulation.
You can buy them on e-bay for about twelve US dollars, which is probably several times its actual value.
Cheers, Tony.

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by Ken0069 » Thu Jul 31, 2014 5:07 pm

Well, here we are again with the market down 2% on the day. It started out down this morning and by close was down 317points. :shock: Recession cycles run between 5 and 8 years so we're in that window. Every time I see this I hold my breath wondering if this will be "The BIG One"!

"Most" of the financial ppl I see on Bloomberg and CNBC say it's going to hit between August and October of 2014.


U.S. Stocks Tumble, Snapping Five-Month Win Streak Dow Industrials Post Steepest Drop Since February

ByChris Dieterich
Updated July 31, 2014 4:33 p.m. ET

http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stoc ... TopStories
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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by sanfordandson » Thu Jul 31, 2014 7:29 pm

If we keep this post alive long enough eventually you'll be right... #-o

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by nickmckinney » Thu Jul 31, 2014 7:49 pm

Ken0069 wrote: Every time I see this I hold my breath wondering if this will be "The BIG One"!
Man get your head out of the sand Chicken Little :lol:

Depending on Wall St to float your paycheck is a lose lose unless you live on Wall St. When the markets go down someone somewhere is making a killing from it.

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by mitch » Thu Jul 31, 2014 8:46 pm

nickmckinney wrote:
Ken0069 wrote: Every time I see this I hold my breath wondering if this will be "The BIG One"!
Man get your head out of the sand Chicken Little :lol:

Depending on Wall St to float your paycheck is a lose lose unless you live on Wall St. When the markets go down someone somewhere is making a killing from it.


What it means is someone just stole someone else money.That money did not just disappear.

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by Warpspeed » Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:31 pm

Actually money can just dissappear, its called "deflation".
Its when assets lose recoverable value.

If you buy shares for five dollars, and the value then falls to one dollar, every single shareholder has lost four fifths of his investment.
That money was not stolen, all that value spread across all the inverstors just instantly dissapears into nothingness.
Its not a zero sum game where one guy wins and another loses.
If you are sitting at a poker tabe you can actually see where the money goes.
Not so with paper assets.

Fools can bid up some totally worhless company and think they are becoming wealthy.
Someone then dumps their shares and crashes the price.
All the bulk of the shareholders lose the wealth that never really existed in the first place.
Think about it....
Cheers, Tony.

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by nickmckinney » Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:42 pm

Look into "shorts" Plenty make money on the downside. All the hard money supply doesn't really exist anyway, you put $100 in the bank it turns into well more than $100 by the time its lent and relent again.

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by Warpspeed » Thu Jul 31, 2014 11:36 pm

All very true.
Best bet these days is to own physical silver and gold, and take personal possession of it.
Thousands of years of recorded history have proved that to be a sound strategy in times of chaos and dissaster.
Cheers, Tony.

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Re: Stock Market Crash?

Post by Ken0069 » Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:22 am

Sowing the Seeds of the Next Depression
By Toby Connor
Wednesday July 30, 2014 15:28

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Conner/2014-07 ... ssion.html
In their infinity wisdom the Fed thinks they have rescued the economy by inflating asset prices and creating a so called "wealth affect."In reality they have created the conditions for the next Great Depression.

Over the last two years the Fed has increasingly intervened in the market to prevent normal corrective moves. As you can see in the chart below this has allowed the stock market to transition from what could've been a normal bull market into a gigantic parabolic bubble.

CONTINUED WITH GRAPHS AT LINK LOCATION

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Conner/2014-07 ... ssion.html
Oh, and you can call me crazy all you want and I do hope you're right!! I do hope it never happens but NO country has done what the Fed is doing now and come out of it without great pain being inflicted on it's citizens!
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
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